The No. 5 seed Dallas Mavericks are hosting the No. 1 seed Oklahoma City Thunder in a potential closeout Game 6 of the Western Conference semifinals on Saturday at 8 p.m. ET. In Game 5, Dallas topped Oklahoma City 104-92 to gain a 3-2 series advantage. SportsLine consensus lists Dallas as the 4-point favorite, while the over/under for total points scored is 209.5 (see up-to-date odds for every game this week on our NBA odds page). 

Before you make any Thunder vs. Mavericks picks, you NEED to see what the SportsLine Projection Model has to say.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past five-plus seasons. The model entered the conference semifinals in the 2024 NBA playoffs on a sizzling 94-61 roll on all top-rated NBA picks this season, returning more than $2,800. Anyone following has seen HUGE returns!

The model knows Dallas guard Luka Doncic is a difference-maker. Doncic precise passes across the court to his teammates and has a knack for drawing contact to get to the free-throw line. The 25-year-old is also a streaky shooter from beyond the arc. Doncic leads the team in scoring (27.1), rebounds (9.6) and assists (9). In his last outing, he had 31 points, 10 boards and 11 assists.

The model also Oklahoma City Thunder guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is a crafty ball handler and scorer. Gilgeous-Alexander is money in the mid-range with good vision as a playmaker. He ranks first on the team in scoring (29.6), rebounds (7.7) and assists (6.2). In Game 5, Gilgeous-Alexander notched 30 points, six rebounds and eight assists.

The model has simulated Thunder vs. Mavericks 10,000 times and the results are in. We can tell you that the model is leaning Over on the point total, and it also says one side of the spread hits in well over 50% of simulations!

Who wins Thunder vs. Mavericks and which side of the spread hits in well over 50% of simulations? ... Join SportsLine right now to find out which side of the spread you should be all over, all from the model on a 94-61 roll on top-rated NBA picks!